Post Peak Berea

Free Statewide Premiere of Age of Stupid at Berea College December 4th

2009-11-28T13:14:00.000-08:00

The Age of Stupid

6:30p.m. Friday December 4^th

Berea College Phelps-Stokes Building

Admission: FREE

Kentucky State-wide premiere of The Age of Stupid

Press Release:

Berea College will be hosting the Kentucky Premiere of Franny Armstrong’s post-apocalyptic documentary-drama Age of Stupid at 6:30 pm on Friday, December 4^th in Phelps Stokes Auditorium.

Armstrong, director of such films as Crude, McLibel and Drowned Out, uses the film to offer a glimpse into the present day from the perspective of individuals from different countries, cultures and socioeconomic classes. Age of Stupid features Oscar nominated Pete Postlethwaite, the sole survivor left behind after the extinction of mankind as he tries to understand how the human race became extinct as it gorged itself on petroleum. The film portrays Postlethwaite as an old man keeping watch over the entire remains of human civilization who retrospectively analyzes the demise of his race using several film segments from the massive information archival database as he regretfully acknowledges how addiction to petroleum and destructive consumption patterns led to the cataclysmic global climate shift due to decades spent carelessly pumping carbon into the atmosphere.

The film will be the final showing in Post Peak Berea’s film series that addresses the environmental and economic impacts of declining oil supply, rising prices and individual responses that can be made to reduce dependency and vulnerability to rising petroleum costs. The series, which featured the films, Kiss Your Gas Goodbye and Peak Moment TV’s Transforming Communities Through Local Business, were used to teach community members about the issue of peak oil and how petroleum extraction impacts the ability of local communities to be self sufficient, as well as outlined strategies that individuals and businesses could do to reduce their energy consumption, save money and boost local economic development. The group, which worked through Sustainable Berea and the Berea College Sustainability and Environmental Studies Program, encourages those interested in learning more about what they can do to reduce energy consumption to come to the free premiere and network with other active community organizers to learn what you can do to reduce your dependency upon Peak Oil. For more information about the event, please check out our blog site at www.postpeakberea.blogspot.com.

Now Playing at Berea College Friday Dec, 4th

2009-11-27T16:38:00.000-08:00

Click the bottom right hand corner of the video for full screen mode.

The Age of Stupid: Trailers: Original Theatrical Trailer from Age of Stupid on Vimeo.

Berea College hosts Kentucky Premiere of The Age of Stupid December 4, 2009 : Come see what all of the fuss is about!!!

2009-11-27T16:22:00.000-08:00

Watch and wonder: How stupid are we?

Edith Johnson , Contributor , Jakarta | Sun, 11/22/2009 4:22 PM | Screen

Source: Jakarta

Pete Postlethwaite appears in the documentary as an archivist in the future, looking back at footage from the past — that is, of now, the Age of Stupid. Courtesy of Spanner Films

After the recent screening of The Age of Stupid, an indie film with a novel approach to environmental documentary, some of the audience lingered for some climate change chit-chat, pondering the pros and cons of doomsday messaging.

Chicken Little meets appreciative inquiry - whom should we back at this historic moment?

Green Radio, Greenpeace and other co-hosts managed to attract about 120 filmgoers to an English-language film with Indonesian subtitles that deserves far wider distribution here. The 30-odd diehards who stayed after the end were cheered up when co-host Green Radio gave away the door prize, a bicycle designed and produced here in Indonesia. The winner was only a bit appreciative - how to get it home on his motorbike?

If you sit down with a Greenpeace activist, a social scientist and a handful of people active in climate change issues, you'll find the tenor of the discussion to be desperate optimism. What's the right way to engage people with the realities of climate change post-Kyoto, post-Inconvenient Truth, and just barely pre-Copenhagen?

But first the film.

Director Franny Armstrong gives us a creative montage of animation, straight-up documentary and sci-fi film traditions to tell a pressing story in real terms we can all understand. Pete Postlethwaite plays the last man on earth, recording his final testimonial in the archive of all human achievement, somewhere 100 miles north of Norway in the post-apocalyptic future. (Which is not so futuristic given global futurists have already set up the Seed Bank in Spitsbergen.)

The four documentaries interwoven through the film offset the dark oblivion of The End, focusing on four real people doing real things to fight the climate change dilemma humans have created. Windmill makers, mountain guides, subsistence farmers are all living within the new "climate code".

The scene stealer is 82-year-old mountain dweller Fernand Pareau, who takes us on an awe-inspiring climb into a recently exposed glacier in the Alps. If a picture is worth a thousand words, then his backyard tells us that this world is not about us.

Piers Guy's story is about his neighbors, incredibly narrow-minded though seemingly intelligent Britons, who think windmills are ugly and refuse to let him throw up a few in their delicious little corner of Cornwall. It shows the practical side - that real decisions take place in town council and zoning meetings in local communities, not in Oxfam offices. We understand the high barriers to accepting the new climate code in ordinary places.

The fi lm uses animation to show parts of the world, such as the Taj Mahal, in the future. Courtesy of Spanner Films

The high-quality animation and effects in the film, its futuristic, creative angle for presenting news clip after news clip, weaving a story together the way we all surf these days - it's all clever enough to make us realize that Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth is just a nerdy dressed up slide show (sorry, Al).

That high-quality and new version comes from the new production mechanism. The film was crowd-financed with social networking techniques (thanks, Barack), with everyone who contributes getting a share in the film (psst - pitch in at www.ageofstupid.net/money).

If the new media are going to make a difference, then this film's message is its way of coming into being and can give us real hope that media and messages can cut through complaisance.

Just another word on technique. Anyone admiring the twisted genius of Terry Gilliam, even if you work for Exxon, will adore this film. The filmmakers let animation director Jonathan Hodgson romp across the screen with multitudes of facts and figures in cardboard cutouts. Special kudos for representing the scale of the issue and the forces at play with "lo's o' li'l bits".

So here's the debate: do we talk about climate change and get everyone engaged by talking about the possibilities, about what can be? Show me a movie about how climate change got reduced and we keep our temperature at about 2 degrees Celsius more than pre-industrial levels. Show me people living without oil in large groups, not the isolated Manhattanite writing a book or wind-farm advocates pretending to be just another regular family in the Cotswolds.

Or do we say, "not enough, not nearly enough" and start raising some ruckus because, despite all the talk, the burning continues while millions of Asians are just beginning to get the chance to say, "I want to get me some of that energy age lifestyle, thank you very much. Just give India a couple of years of pleasure and then we'll turn liberal too."

The Age of Stupid will be screened again in Indonesia on Dec. 4. Details will be announced at www.ageofstupid.net/screenings/cinemas/2017

Quotes from The Age of Stupid

The Archivist (Pete Postlethwaite): "We could have saved ourselves, but we didn't. It's amazing. What state of mind were we in, to face extinction and simply shrug it off?"

Alvin DuVernay (Shell paleontologist and hero of Hurricane Katrina): "In my opinion our use or misuse of resources the last 100 years or so, I'd probably rename that age, something like The Age of Ignorance, The Age of Stupid."

Fernand Pareau (French mountain guide): "When you're in the mountains you're roped together. The risk is the same for you as it is for me."

Piers Guy (UK wind-farm developer): "How the heck are we meant to persuade people in India and China to develop in a more sustainable way when we're not even prepared to accept the odd wind-farm in the landscape?"

Buy Local & Be All That You Can Be

2009-11-11T22:14:00.000-08:00

Buying Local And The Circulating Dollar

Source: Blue Oregon

By John Amundsen of Portland, Oregon who describes himself as "a native Oregonian who wants to improve it's livability, economy, and communities."

Buy local. We all want to do it, but do we really know why? It's good for our local economy. Well, that's right. If we can buy at a national chain at what we think is a lower price, isn't that better for our personal or our company's economy? Well, that's wrong. What happens to a dollar spent locally versus at a national chain or formula restaurant?

Tim Mitchell in Northwest Earth Institute's Choices for Sustainable Living states, 'A dollar spent at a locally owned store is usually spent 6 to 15 times before it leaves the community. From $1, you create $5 to $14 in value within that community.' That's good news! He also states, 'Spend $1 at a national chain store, and 80% leaves town immediately.' That's bad news. Let's recap. Dollars circulating locally -- good. Dollars leaving community -- bad. Next question.

Is that enough for everyone to start buying local? Apparently not. What about that personal and professional economy being more important than the community? Why does the federal government require that government agencies only buy from the lowest bidder, which is very often outside of the local economy or a national chain? These are good questions.

Let's take that personal economy question first. The purchaser says, 'I save money by purchasing at the lower price!' That's an obvious statement, but is the national chain always cheaper? Sometimes, it is just the opposite. Many times local suppliers and retailers are part of co-op groups and buying groups that collectively have the buying power of the national chains.

GOPD is a market research and technology company specializing in the office products industry. GOPD has been monitoring chain store pricing practices since 1999 and is the un-disputed leader in the field. A study on the national chains of office suppliers and independent office suppliers concluded this:

'Our research has shown, time and time again, that most local independent office supply companies are substantially lower in overall cost to the consumer.'

'The pricing gap between the independent and the chains is so wide, and the consumer perceptions are so engrained that the chains have the lowest prices, that some independents have chosen to match the chain store prices using our services.'

Yes, you read that right. Some independent suppliers raised their prices by matching the national chains. National chains have successfully changed the perception of the consumer that they are the lowest price through advertising and price juggling. Clearly, local is better here.

to read more of this article check out Blue Oregon HERE.

OVA: Have You Been Tested... 9

2009-11-11T11:14:00.000-08:00

Are you playing Roulette with your fiscal health?

We all contribute to global warming every day. The carbon dioxide you produce by driving your car and leaving the lights on adds up quickly. You may be surprised by how much Co2 you are emitting each year, particularly if you operate a commercial business. Calculate your personal impact and learn how you can take action to reduce or even eliminate your emissions of carbon dioxide.

CALCULATE YOUR IMPACT HERE

Fighting Oil Addiction 2008

Ranking States' Oil Vulnerability and Solutions for Change

Source: Natural Resources Defense Council

The sharp rise in gas prices has been a reminder that America's addiction to oil continues to threaten our economic viability, our national security and global environmental health. To curb this perilous addiction, we need effective government policies that will increase the availability and use of efficient vehicles and clean fuels and that will promote smart growth and public transit. This July 2008 issue paper identifies the states that are most vulnerable to spikes in oil prices?and those states that are doing the most to break their addiction to oil.

For the full Report go the NRDC website. There you can find:

OVERVIEW & QUICK REFERENCE
Press release
Fact Sheet
FULL REPORT IN PDF

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Oil Vulnerability Rankings: Who Is Hardest-Hit?
Chapter 2: Breaking Our Addiction: Solutions to Oil Dependence
Chapter 3: Conclusion
Appendix: Methodology
& Conclusions

Below is a document illustrating an Oil Dependency Audit conducted by The University of Liverpool

Oil _ Energy Dependency Assessment_1_ -

Even CNN did a report recently on a study performed that ranked individual state's vulnerability to oil prices. You can Access the article HERE!

Is Your Business At Risk?

The following is a study conducted for the Oil Vulnerability in the Operations of Businesses and Commercial Organizations

Oil _ Energy Dependency Assessment -

For more information about how your businesses can be affected by rising energy costs, check out the

Behavioral and Social Aspects of Energy Consumption and Production: Preliminary Report (1982)

&
the document

Small Business Energy Policy

Post Peak Berea works to Build the Transition Initiative

2009-10-30T18:41:00.000-07:00

Kiss Your Gas Goodbye Showing

Anyone who has had to pay some of the exorbitant gas prices over the last few years-- had to pay more for utilities or bought any product that they could have made here but was shipped from someplace like china should be interested in the issue of peak oil. Because it affects them, and it’s about to seriously affect their lifestyle—perhaps you’ve noticed the price increases on their expenditures like food, some of which are now being sold for MORE money with reduced packaging to cover the cost of gas needed to ship them.

While the environment is something that people may not like to talk about, you might have heard others complain about America’s dependency on foreign oil –which has become a big topic over the last few years. --I’m sure you’ve all heard all of the arguments. But we’re not going to talk about that. The reason that we’re here today is to talk about the more important issue of why the discussion of oil has become such a big topic regarding the global economic crisis and how the issue of peak oil impacts every aspect of your daily life. Because the bottom line is, there is only so much oil that this planet can produce. It takes millions of years to form, and with the amount of energy that we consume it’s only a matter of time when the amount of oil that we use in the production of our plastic cups and cell phones—among other things will exceed the amount of oil that we are able to produce. Unfortunately, the time when we could no longer worry about that is long gone and we’ve reached the point where in THIS century—and the likelihood is that it will be in many of our lifetimes – that we are going to be able to see the impact of what that means. In the United States we’ve already seen how much an oil shortage can affect our ability to ship food, supplies, pay for gas, or have access to products that we don’t manufacture here. For some us, the price has already hit us pretty hard in the pockets. Even now proposals are being made to begin extracting oil from tar pits to make up for the difference, which is the equivalent from trying to slurp clean water out of a dirty sponge --INSTEAD of learning how to simply live better and healthier using less stuff. There are a lot of things that we import into the US that we don’t even need. And not only do we pay other people for this stuff, we ship our jobs there so that we can continue to buy into a system that at the drop of a hat could sabotage our ability to be able to provide for our own basic needs. So what we’re doing this evening is taking a closer look into why this issue exists and over this film series we’ll really begin to look at some practical strategies for conservation and relocalisation to address these issues. And the best thing is, by adding this community into the discussion we can learn a lot of strategies from each other of ways that we can not only save energy & money, but make sure that as the price of oil jumps back up, that you all are more prepared to deal with these changes so that you’re not stuck footing the bill of your own overconsumption. To learn more about this we have provided the minutes and reflections of tonight's film showing and discussion surrounding the Richard Heinberg film.

Post Peak Berea Film Showing: Kiss Your Gas Goodbye

One of the most important aspects of growing any movement is community participation. No one wants to build a movement and move on only to watch it fall apart due to lack of leadership, so Post Peak Berea is experimenting with ways to build community participation in order to see their community organization efforts take a life of its own.

That being said, one aspect that is rarely maintained consistently with community organization efforts, is the cataloging and marketing of any community initiative campaign. Often times, more energy is expended letter writing and recruiting participation than is used to properly catalog the efforts initiated so that future participants can continue to carry on the work. While the current series only features three films, results have already shown that their is interest in continuing developing the Post Peak and Energy Descent Power-Down movement and rebuilding re-localization efforts. In order to provide a stepping stone to those who wish to carry on the torch, Post Peak Berea is providing a brief overview and reflection of our initiative so that the resource will be available for those who wish to pursue more conservation efforts.

For those who are interested in continuing transition work, there is now a Transition Town wiki located @ http://transitiontowns.org/TransitionNetwork/TransitionNetwork that provides access to other initiatives that transition towns around the world have worked to develop. Here are a few words from the "Father of the Transition Town Initiative" and his "holy grail" for community organizing in his article: "10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative".

Published Jan 31 2007 by Transition Culture, Archived Jan 31 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative

Source: Energy Bulletin

by Rob Hopkins

[ The Transition Town concept, as championed by Rob Hopkins, has been celebrated in recent days at the Soil Association conference in Cardiff. Transition Town initiatives engage community in peak oil and climate change awareness, planning and action, building on the influencial Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan concept. The following headlines link to full articles on the process so as Rob and the people of Totnes, UK are developing it. These tips should be indispensable to anyone involved in local post-peak planning, and inspiration to anyone who isn't involved yet.
-AF ]

Wed 10 Jan 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative #1. Awareness Raising.

There are a number of groups now wanting to initiate Transition Town projects, and their first question is usually “where do we start?” In order to answer this question and to clarify our own minds on this whole subject, we have prepared this collection of the first 10 steps as we see them. At this point we cannot offer an A – Z map for how to do a Transition Town project. But having travelled from A-C, we can at least give you some indicators as to what has been successful for us through the Totnes experience. While they don’t necessarily run in the order they will here, today’s is by necessity the first. (more…)

Thu 11 Jan 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative #2. Lay the Foundations.

It is extremely unlikely that you will be starting a Transition Town project in a place where absolutely no environmental initiatives have ever happened before (although it is possible that such places exist: if you are in such a place it might be worth contemplating why…). Within the community there will be people who are just finding out about environmental ideas, people who have been familiar with the intellectual side of it for years but haven’t done much practical action, those who are gardeners, growers and builders, and people who are burnt out from doing all this stuff for years while no-one listened. (more…)

Fri 12 Jan 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative #3. The Official Unleashing.

Despite one overexcitable Transition Culture reader writing that “‘Organising the great unleashing’ …has the added bonus of sounding totally filthy”, it is, perhaps disappointingly, nothing of the sort. We use the term ‘Unleashing’ because that is the sense that this event should embody. Through the first 2 stages, ideally you now have a groundswell of people fired up about peak oil and climate change and eager to start doing something. The aim of this event is to generate a momentum which will propel your initiative forward for the next period of its work. (more…)

Mon 15 Jan 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative #4. Form Groups.

You can’t do this on your own. Part of the process of developing an Energy Descent Action Plan is that of tapping into the collective genius of the community. One of the most effective ways to do this is to set up a number of smaller groups to focus on specific aspects of the process. Each of these groups will develop their own ways of working and their own activities, but will all fall under the umbrella of the project as a whole. (more…)

Tue 16 Jan 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative #5. Use Open Space.

Open Space Technology is an extraordinary tool. It has been described as ‘a simple way to run productive meetings, for five to 2000+ people, and a powerful way to lead any kind of organization, in everyday practice and ongoing change’. In theory it ought not to work. A large group of people comes together to explore a particular topic or issue, with no agenda, no timetable, no obvious co-ordinator and no minute takers. (more…)

Wed 17 Jan 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative #6. Develop Visible Practical Manifestations of the Project.

It is easy to come up with ideas, harder to get practical things happening on the ground. It is essential that you avoid any sense that your project is just a talking shop where people sit around and draw up wish lists. Your project needs, from an early stage, to begin to create practical manifestations in the town, high visibility signals that it means business. The power that doing this has in how it affects both people’s perceptions of the project and also in people’s willingness to engage is huge. (more…)

Thu 18 Jan 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative #7. Facilitate The Great Reskilling.

In my experience, peak oil is a better motivating issue than climate change, because it holds a mirror up to an individual community/individual/society and asks where is the resilience? Where is its ability to withstand shocks? Beyond the realisation that very little resilience actually remains, comes the realisation that very few people still have the skills a more resilient society needs. This is where your Transition Town initiative comes in. (more…)

Mon 22 Jan 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative #8. Build a Bridge to Local Government

Whatever the degree of groundswell your Transition Town initiative manages to generate, however many practical projects you manage to get going on the ground and however wonderful your Energy Descent Plan is, you will not progress too far unless you have cultivated a positive and productive relationship with your local authority. Whether it is planning issues, funding issues or whatever, you need them on board. You may well find, in many places now, that you are pushing against an open door. (more…)

Tue 23 Jan 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative #9. Honour the Elders.

For those of us born in the 1960s when the cheap oil party was in full swing, it is very hard to relate the idea of life with less oil with our own personal experience. Every year of my life (the oil crises of the 70s excepted) has been underpinned by more and more energy. I have no idea of what a more localised society looked like in the UK, the closest I have is how towns were in rural Ireland when I moved there in 1996, the shops all owned by families, the most memorable ones slightly damp smelling with wooden floorboards that sold the most unusual combinations of things (paraffin lamps, boxes of biscuits and aprons) generally run by a couple in their late 60s. There is a great deal that we can learn from those who directly remember the transition to the age of cheap oil, especially the period between 1930 and 1960. (more…)

Wed 24 Jan 2007

10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative #10. Let it Go Where It Wants to Go and Reflections…

This final one won’t take long, as it is really pretty straightforward, requiring very little elucidation. In essence, although you may start out developing your Transition Town process with a clear idea of where it will go, it will inevitably go elsewhere. You need to be open to it going where the energy of those who get involved want to take it. If you try and hold onto the idea that it will be a certain way it will, after a while, begin to sap the energy that is building to do certain things. It is what is so exciting about the whole thing, seeing what emerges. (more…)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For more information see Rob's blog www.transitionculture.org and the Transition Towns website www.transitiontowns.org
-AF

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Original article available here
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Energy Bulletin is a program of Post Carbon Institute, a nonprofit organization dedicated to helping the world transition away from fossil fuels and build sustainable, resilient communities.

National Coverage over the issue of Peak Oil

2009-10-27T12:28:00.000-07:00

'Peak Oil Theory' Demands Energy Alternatives

by John Burnett

Source: NPR

December 13, 2008

To Listen to the Story: Click Here

Mira Oberman/AFP/Getty Images

Oil workers operate a rig in Midland County, Texas, in June 2008.

December 13, 2008

Plummeting gasoline and diesel prices have given consumers relief at the pump. But oil pessimists believe the current slump in demand will pass. And when it does, the world will be in the same fix it was before the global recession. The era of easy oil is behind us. According to those who believe in what's called "peak oil theory," world oil production has already peaked, or flattened, and in the foreseeable future, the declining resource will inevitably change the way we live.

Brainstorming How To Stop Using Oil

A group in Austin, Texas, meets once a month to prepare for the end of oil. They call themselves Crude Awakening.

"When gas prices peaked here about six months ago, we had the largest meeting in July. We had about 25 people show up," said Brian McNerney, a 46-year-old retired Army lieutenant colonel.

On a recent night, about a dozen people showed up. What this group does — and dozens like it around the United States and the globe do — is trade lifestyle tips on how to kick oil addiction.

"I've been aware of peak oil for about three years now. And since then, I've personally changed my life. I got rid of my cars and get around by bicycle 90 percent of the time," said Paul Karagas, who is 44 and works in the semiconductor industry.

The group discusses things like bicycle maintenance, the best hybrids to drive, gardening, shopping locally and installing solar panels. Each has had his own crude awakening, said Greg Bowsner, a 37-year-old network administrator.

"Oh my God, I think it's oil that's really going to be the first thing that smacks us in the face and forces us to confront the fact that we cannot live this way any longer, that this is not sustainable," he said.

On the meeting night in early November, there was big news. The usually staid International Energy Agency in Paris had just issued an alarming report that concluded what is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution, a rapid move toward low-carbon societies.

"I don't know if y'all have read this or not," said the night's speaker, Michael Osborne of Austin Energy, the city-owned utility with a national reputation for energy efficiency, "but the first paragraph of the executive summary says, 'The world's energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable. But that can and must be altered.' "

Debating When To Start Worrying

Oil industry executives don't doubt that world oil production will one day peak. The debate is over when. The orthodoxy — set forth by most major oil companies, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the U.S. Energy Information Administration — is that the inevitable plateau is still decades away, probably past the middle of this century. And by then, we'll have even more renewable energy sources in place, and even better technology to extract hard-to-get reserves. So, their message is — don't panic.

"What I have a problem with is that global production will peak in the very short term and then the tank will run dry very quickly thereafter. I don't think it's quite as black and white as that. I mean, clearly we're dealing with a finite resource, but we see strong growth in oil supply unfolding in the next few years, and there is a strong inventory of new projects of oil already discovered," said Peter Jackson, senior oil industry analyst at the influential Cambridge Energy Research Associates. He's the author of a 2006 report, "Why the Peak Oil Theory Falls Down."

Jackson points to major new deep-water projects in Brazil, Angola and Nigeria and the expectation of plentiful nonconventional oil from Canada and Venezuela.

His optimism is in contrast to the dire predictions of peak oil's foremost prophet, Matt Simmons.

"I am saying the sky is falling. If we ignore peak oil; worse, if we laugh about it, continue consuming, we will have a massive shortage," Simmons said from his office in Houston. The garrulous, 65-year-old oil-field investment banker said the world's giant oil fields are all in decline — from the North Sea to Mexico's Cantarell field.

"Energy reality, if you take off rose-colored glasses and just study data, is that crude oil in most non-OPEC countries is now in decline, and in too many countries in steep decline. Virtually all of the OPEC producers, with the exception of Angola, are really struggling to keep their production flat," he said in a recent speech to the Houston chapter of the Young Professionals in Energy.

The fresh-faced group listening intently to him comprises the next generation of energy industry leaders. A quick poll of them revealed they're not as sanguine about the future of oil as the current industry leadership.

"People don't understand how serious the problem is. Like [Simmons] pointed out, the declines in Mexico are huge, the declines in Venezuela are huge," said Matt Boyd, 34, a geologist for Southwestern Energy.

"I think he's a little bit on the aggressive side in believing that we've already peaked," said Mike Cox, 27, with Schlumberger Business Consulting. "But I do agree we have that on the horizon, and there's not an infinite amount of oil and at some point we'll have to deal with the declining curve."

Another member of the audience was 23-year-old Andrew Keene, an energy lender. "I think the world is definitely running out of oil," said Keene. "I don't think the predictions that Saudi Arabia can replace 15 to 35 million barrels a day is feasible. And we need to consider some alternatives and some other options."

Web Resources

Report By The International Energy Agency Supports "Peak Oil Theory"

Report By Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) Says Peak Not Imminent

Comments from the NPR Community
In planning the infrastructure stimulus package, Obama ought to seriously confront the problem of peak oil. Perhaps reviving inter-city train service is a smart use of some of this money.
–Peter Wilbur (croquetballer)

Redefining Our Future

2009-10-19T11:28:00.000-07:00

When It Comes to Oil, We're Riding a Slippery Slope

Energy Uncertainty and Community Resilience

Source: People and Place
by Daniel Lerch
January 06, 2009 04:21PM

More and more analysts agree that we will pass the maximum point of global oil production – or “peak oil” – within the next few years*, with no viable substitute resource in place. Governments and businesses across the world are racing to find technological and geopolitical responses to this potential economic and social disaster.

A systems thinking frame suggests that the problem posed by peak oil is not simply a matter of declining oil supplies. The larger problem is that our social and economic systems are so overdependent on oil that they lack resilience against oil decline. A systems thinking frame also suggests that some of the most important decisions for improving our resilience can only be made at the level of local communities, and not at the level of national governments or transnational corporations.

What does it mean for our social-economic system to lack resilience against peak oil? The shift in transportation behavior driven by surging oil prices earlier this year highlights some examples. Millions of commuters shifted to public transit, but decades of government funding that prioritized highways and car-dependent suburbs have left most of our transit systems unable to properly serve the new demand. The airline industry quickly hiked fares and cut service, threatening economic hardship for many cities and businesses that have grown dependent on cheap air travel.

In short, our social-economic system risks serious disruption because literally millions of households and businesses are locked into land use and transportation patterns that depend on a cheap and constant supply of oil.

Brian Walker’s “resilience thinking” framework describes some of the key characteristics of resilient systems: diversity, variability, modularity, and feedbacks. These characteristics suggest that resilience in our social and economic systems will rest largely in qualities found at the local level. Indeed, our system of local government already exhibits these qualities in many ways, with 35,000+ town, city and county governments and 45,000+ school, utility and other special districts all locally created and locally controlled. Each of these local agencies is attuned to local needs and resources, and each can experiment with its own way of solving problems.

Not surprisingly, the first and most important characteristics for resilience against peak oil have already begun to surface at the local level. Of all the things communities can do to increase their resilience, by far the two most important are to (a) reduce overall energy consumption and (b) produce more energy locally. Consumption reduction has obvious benefits for resilience: the less energy we need to accomplish something, whether traveling five miles or producing five widgets, the more easily we can absorb a price increase or supply interruption of that energy. An essential part of reducing consumption is designing and retrofitting our buildings for greater energy efficiency, which architects and developers are increasingly doing thanks in part to programs like Energy Star, LEED certifications and the 2030 Challenge.

Local energy production is almost as straightforward a prospect. With existing technology it’s quite possible to aggregate renewably-produced electricity from community-owned wind turbines, rooftop solar arrays and larger power plants. Germany has been a leader in "distributed" solar power, and efforts in North American cities — from tiny Sebastopol, California, to Toronto, Ontario — are finding success with distributed production as well. It's also quite possible to collectively heat buildings from central plants powered by local energy sources like biomass and solar. Centralized district heating systems are increasingly common in Scandinavia, often using combined heat and power (CHP) plants.
In most cases, the barriers to reducing consumption and producing locally are things we can change by choice: policy and habit. Of course, building resilience requires more than simply changing our consumption and production patterns. What we ultimately need to do is rethink our established patterns of community provisioning, transportation, land use, social services, regional commerce and just about every other aspect of our modern world. Here are just a few examples of the ways that cities are building resilience holistically, whether in response to peak oil or simply as part of an ingrained sense of sustainability:

Peak Oil Task Forces
Starting with San Francisco in April 2006, more than ten local governments in the United States have set up an official task force or committee on peak oil to identify local vulnerabilities and make recommendations for local responses. The model for many of these efforts has been the Portland (Oregon) Peak Oil Task Force, the recommendations of which included establishing a goal of reducing community-wide oil consumption by 50% over 25 years, supporting land use patterns that reduce transportation needs, and expanding local food production and processing.

Peak oil task forces have been established in communities large and small, liberal and conservative. Spokane, in rural eastern Washington, was the first U.S. city to establish a task force addressing both peak oil and global warming. The Canadian cities of Burnaby, British Columbia, and Hamilton, Ontario, have conducted internal reports, and further afield, the cities of Bristol (UK) and Brisbane (Australia) have established peak oil task forces of their own.

Transportation and Land Use
Many cities in Western Europe are known for their pedestrian environment, their efficient public transport or their bicycle infrastructure. Freiburg, in southwestern Germany, has long been recognized for a comprehensive approach to transportation and land use that goes far beyond mere regulations. Decades ago, the city closed off downtown streets to cars and widened them to make way for streetcars and pedestrians. More recently, the local government partnered with a community group to redevelop an old army barracks into a 4,700-inhabitant energy-efficient and car-free neighborhood.

Local Energy
The towns of Güssing in Austria and Växjö in Sweden have recently won accolades for their innovative approaches to developing local energy sources. Växjö has reduced its CO₂ emissions 30% below 1993 levels largely by building a 100 MW plant that also supplies over 90% of the town with heating and hot water – all from wood chip waste salvaged from the local timber industry. For its part, Güssing has cut its CO₂ levels over 90% from 1995 levels by reinventing itself as a hub for renewable energy innovation. Thanks to investing early and providing both government leadership and support for the local energy industry, Güssing is now home to 50 companies producing energy and fuels from all manner of renewable sources.

In just the last few years, an exciting new systems-oriented model for urban planning has made its way to the United States. The eco-municipality model, which arose in Sweden in the 1980s, brings the system sustainability framework of The Natural Step and a priority for public involvement to community planning processes. It’s only one of a handful of such approaches, however. If we are to truly build the resilience of all our communities against the coming changes in the global oil supply, urban planners and policymakers will need to turn aggressively to more systems-informed approaches to community governance and development.

* Thanks to the recent steep decline in oil prices and the steadily-worsening world financial crisis, investment in unconventional oil production has plummeted – leading some analysts to observe that 2008 could end up being the year global oil production peaked.

Rob Hopkins, the author of The Transition Handbook and coordinator of the first official transition initiative, discusses how he used the Kinsale model of Energy Action Descent to develop 12 steps that can me made toward rebuilding community resilience to reduce the dependency upon peak oil. You can check out more about his initiatives on his website Transition Culture. Click Here For More info.

Steps 1-6

Steps 7-12

Peak Oil @ Grinning Planet

2009-10-16T12:38:00.000-07:00

Is all of the gloom and doom over the issue of peak oil, making you kind of fizzle ? We've discovered away to make learning about peak oil as painless as possible. Check out, Grinning Planet @ grinningplanet.com for resources that can be used to learn and teach about peak oil. The developer of grinning planet is a resident of Berea. You might remember him from the presentation he gave at the 2009 Berea Solar Tour. You can also learn more about Grinning Planet Farm and their sustainable farming practices at the following site www.grinningplanet.com/farm

1. Peak Oil Quotes
Enjoy our page of peak oil quotes/quotations, peak energy quotes ... about oil peaking. This page presents peak oil quotes and peak energy quotations ... said about peak oil, shrinking
www.grinningplanet.com/environmental-quotes/peak-oil-quotes.htm

2. Peak Oil Books
A list of peak oil books. Get GP ... as well as books about peak energy. PEAK OIL BOOK SECTIONS Most Recent ... crises of climate change and peaking oil production are converging on
www.grinningplanet.com/environmental-books/peak-oil-books.htm

3. Peak Oil Crisis - Information and Resources
OIL WARS OR ADAPTATION? (UPDATED) (Peak Oil Crisis #136) 26- ... THE FLAG ON THE OIL PEAK US Oil War — or Adaptation ... THREE LAWS OF OUR ENERGY PEAK FUTURE:LOCAL, LOCAL, LOCAL Energy
www.grinningplanet.com/5005/peak-oil-crisis-information-resources.htm

4. Peak Oil FAQ
Oil FAQ that answers all the frequently asked questions about the oil production peak. Get GP ... the coming oil peak. Updated Jul-2008 ... Enjoy (and act!) . PEAK OIL ...FREQUENTLY ASKED
www.grinningplanet.com/2006/05-16/peak-oil-faq.htm

5. Peak Oil Article - Primer on Peak Oil
An article about peak oil—a primer on petroleum shortages, peak oil evidence, impact on ... real story is about "peak oil"—the point in ... we have a basic peak oil article—a primer
www.grinningplanet.com/2005/06-14/peak-oil-article.htm

6. Peak Oil Solutions
What are the real peak oil/energy solutions ... and nuclear energy are peak oil solutions that have ... THIS SERIES 1. Peak Oil and Environment 2. Peak Oil Solutions 3. Peak Oil and Energy
www.grinningplanet.com/2007/03-27/peak-oil-solutions.htm

7. Peak Oil Summary
A one-page summary of peak oil issues. Get GP free ... ARE COMING!THE PEAKISTS ARE COMING! Peak Oil Summary (1-Page Version of ... that once we hit the peak, the demand for oil will
www.grinningplanet.com/articles/peak-oil/peak-oil-summary.htm

8. Peak Oil and Environment
This article explores the environmental impact peak oil and future energy ... between the environment and peak oil—that is, the ... in the near term, peak oil promises to have
www.grinningplanet.com/2007/01-30/peak-oil-and-environment.htm

9. Energy Peak/Relocalization
It's peak oil and more... Upd. Jun- ... THREE LAWS OF OUR ENERGY PEAK FUTURE: LOCAL, LOCAL, LOCAL The ... exists for dealing with the peaking of energy supply, "global relocalization
www.grinningplanet.com/2005/09-20/energy-peak-relocalization-article.htm

10. US Oil War (or Adaptation?)
Oil article , we presented compelling evidence that a peak in global oil production ... realizes the truth about peak oil and its impacts ... forward in dealing with peak oil. U.S. Oil
www.grinningplanet.com/2005/07-12/oil-wars-article.htm

11. Environmental Multimedia
The premise of this 48-minute movie is that oil will soon peak, and that this ... being "just another peak oil movie." Read ... together topics like peak oil, permaculture, societal
www.grinningplanet.com/environmental-multimedia.htm

12. Environmental Movies
World series, is that oil will soon peak, and that this will ... a climate-change or peak-oil perspective, our energy ... for anyone concerned about peak oil and sprawl. The
www.grinningplanet.com/6001/environmental-movies.htm

13. News Download Archive
Heinberg, who points out that "peak coal" will likely happen ... about urban planning in the peak oil era, including how the ... doing to prepare for peak oil?" Go to page |
www.grinningplanet.com/mp3-news/archive-news-download-mp3s.htm

14. Cool Animations/Videos
The premise of this 48-minute movie is that oil will soon peak, and that this ... being "just another peak oil movie." Read ... together topics like peak oil, permaculture, societal
www.grinningplanet.com/cool-animations-cool-videos.htm

15. Energy Books
America—our ingenuity and adaptability as a species give us hope. Peak Oil Books We ... separate books page for ... Peak Oil Books Books About ... oil production will peak—if it hasn
www.grinningplanet.com/environmental-books/energy-books.htm

16. Crude Impact - review
Our happiness peaked in the 1950s, ... site Related options... Peak Oil section of ... Environmental Movies page Peak Oil Books Peak Oil Articles and Resources Peak Oil Quotes page
www.grinningplanet.com/environmental-movies/c/crude-impact-review.htm

17. Escape From Suburbia - review
Review of peak oil film/movie: Escape From ... on the general issue of Peak Oil and explaining its potential ... already actively following the unfolding Peak Oil saga on the real
www.grinningplanet.com/environmental-movies/e/escape-from-suburbia-review...

18. Energy Resources
ARTICLES ON THIS SITE . . . about Energy Issues PEAK OIL & ENVIRONMENT (UPDATED) ( ... OF OUR ENERGY PEAK FUTURE:LOCAL, LOCAL ... Energy Also see: Peak Oil Vehicles/Transportation
www.grinningplanet.com/5005/energy-resources.htm

19. What a Way to Go - Life at the End of Empire - review
Review of peak oil film/movie: ... a different sort of "Peak Oil movie." Rather than ... Related options... Environmental Movies Peak Oil Movies Peak Oil Books Peak Oil Articles and Resources
www.grinningplanet.com/environmental-movies/w/what-a-way-to-go-life-at-th...

20. Environmental Article List (by Date)
Issue #142) 27-JUN-2008 THE THREE LAWS OF OUR ENERGY PEAK FUTURE:LOCAL, LOCAL, LOCAL Energy Peak and Relocalization VIEW ... Funny Environmental Quotes - Peak Oil Quotes Environmental
www.grinningplanet.com/6001/environmental-issues-all.htm

Peak Oil: Challenge or Opportunity?

2009-10-06T10:38:00.000-07:00

This is only the 1st 10 minutes of the documentary.

So you could pay the extra pound to find out why that is, or you dig a little bit deeper to find out why we are running out of the world's most valuable commodity and how that is going to impact your ability to supply your individual and community resources in the next few decades.

News: Media Center

Source: Natural Resources Defense Council

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE [En Español ]

Press contact: Michael Oko (202) 513-6245

As Gas Prices Rise, Consumers Face Increased Threat of Oil Dependency

New analysis shows state-by-state ranking of oil vulnerability

WASHINGTON (August 11, 2009) -- Rising gas prices, combined with the economic downturn are making people more vulnerable to changes in oil prices, according to new analysis by the Natural Resources Defense Council. The report also shows that many states are taking significant steps to reduce oil dependence through smart clean-transportation policies.

"Especially with today’s economic challenges, Americans face a growing threat from our nation’s dangerous addiction to oil,” said Deron Lovaas, NRDC’s transportation policy director. “This report shows how important it is for states to promote clean energy policies that will reduce our dependence on oil, while also reducing global warming pollution."

The report, "Fighting Oil Addiction: Ranking States' Oil Vulnerability and Solutions for Change,” provides a detailed look at how oil prices impact consumers and ways in which smart policies can help break states’ addiction to oil.

According to the report, the top 10 states most vulnerable to oil price increases are: #1 Mississippi; #2 Montana; #3 South Carolina; #4 Oklahoma; #5 Louisiana; #6 Kentucky, #7 Texas; #8 New Mexico; #9 Georgia; and #10 Arkansas.

The top 10 states that are doing the most to promote clean energy technologies and reduce their dependence on oil are: #1California; #2 Massachusetts; #3 Washington; #4 New Mexico; #5 Connecticut; #6 New York; #7 New Jersey; #8 Pennsylvania; #9 Oregon; and #10 Florida.

The report focuses on two important factors that relate to the nation’s addiction to oil. First, it calculates oil vulnerability -- how heavily each state’s drivers are affected by increases in oil prices. Second, it ranks states on their adoption of solutions to reduce their oil dependence -- measures they are taking to lessen their vulnerability and to bolster America’s security.

The report also shows that by promoting clean vehicle and fuel technologies as well as transportation alternatives states can reduce oil dependence. These measures can, in turn, create clean energy jobs, reduce vulnerability to fuel price hikes, and lessen air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

Lovaas added, “The Federal government can step in to help states break their addiction to oil by implementing comprehensive clean energy and climate policies and by reforming our national transportation system through an overhauled, performance-driven transportation policy.

The full report, with state-by-state rankings, can be accessed at: http://www.nrdc.org/energy/states/

The Natural Resources Defense Council is a national, nonprofit organization of scientists, lawyers and environmental specialists dedicated to protecting public health and the environment. Founded in 1970, NRDC has 1.2 million members and online activists, served from offices in New York, Washington, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Beijing.

Oil: The Global Parasite

2009-09-28T18:36:00.000-07:00

A Tapeworm’s Triumph

The other day, a natural healing practitioner explained the strategy used by a tapeworm to prosper. A tapeworm, she said, injected a chemical into its host that triggered a craving by the host for what the tapeworm wished for its dinner. By managing it’s hosts desire, a tapeworm manipulated its host to set aside self-interest and please its parasite. And so the tapeworm proceeded to consume its host’s energy and health, with the host doing most of the work.

The story of how a tapeworm parasitically eats away at its ecosystem came at a moment when the math lover in me was having an adverse reaction to the description of America as the new Roman Empire that seems to be inspired by the recent occupation of Iraq. The investment economics of American imperial conquest work more along the lines of the tapeworm than of the Romans.

If my rudimentary understanding of the rise and fall of ancient empires is useful, the Roman Empire brought an advancement of science, infrastructure, technology and material progress to many of the poorer lands that it conquered. In essence, Rome’s territory grew in part from its ability to increase the ‘return on investment” of many of the places it conquered.

While those who believe in self-determination may not approve of the Romans right to do so, or their methods, those of us who appreciate roads, bridges and infrastructure understand the positive investment yields that the introduction of intellectual capital to a place can generate. From one point of view, Rome financed its conquests not just by ransacking them --- but by making places smarter in the material sense.

The tapeworm -- a parasite that over time eats its host ---can more accurately describe the demonic patterns of stripping places of intellectual capital that come with American imperial conquest. The “dumbing down” so often complained about within America’s borders is a phenomenon that our military appears to be implementing globally. We seem intent on removing spiritual power and intellectual IQ as we depopulate globally, moving out the honest and competent and putting the corrupt and bureaucratic in charge.

One of the things that is most disturbing about the American tapeworm is that it has organized its leadership around private banks and defense contractors and its governance and intellectual air cover around think tanks and private universities and their tax-exempt endowments.

In so doing it has done a marvelous job of getting the intellectual resources of the nation disengaged from dealing with what is happening and engaged –if not financially dependent on--- producing chemicals for injection into the body politic through a highly centralized corporate media that will feed the tapeworm's desire.

The Harvard Watch reports description of Harvard academics creating the public policy justifications for Enron's frauds while the Harvard endowment fed at the trough illuminated a perfect example of how the tapeworm gets the host to act against its own self-interest.

The “Break It-Fix It” Subsidy of a Negative Return on Investment Economy

For several years, I have been studying and writing on the corporate and banking economic warfare model of globalization. Just from a case study of one private investor, Pug Winokur, and his investments in and with DynCorp, Enron and Harvard, examples abound.

US neighborhoods are overrun with narcotics trafficking and HUD financial fraud while systematically worked by enforcement, seizure and War on Drugs teams supported by DynCorp and generating profits for the Harvard Endowment;
Latin American pipelines, water and other assets are sold for significant discounts to market value to Enron and other multinational investors while DynCorp helps War on Drugs military teams move peasants off the lands;
Russian banks and pension funds are emptied out by organized crime and laundered through NY Fed member banks while Harvard as financial advisor helps privatize Russian oil companies over to their endowment investment network;
DynCorp personnel supplying police and aircraft maintenance are active with local mafia in Eastern Europe and practice buying and selling children as slaves which they use for sex;
$3.3 trillion is missing from the Department of Defense and the Department of Housing Development where Lockheed, DynCorp & AMS are active managing computer systems and Harvard supplies appointees and contract services.
Manipulation of the gold markets by the US Treasury and NY Fed member banks are led by Larry Summers, Secretary of the Treasury, and now President of Harvard and his predecessor Robert Rubin, Secretary of Treasury, and now member of the Harvard Corporation Board.

These shenanigans are well documented by a series of courageous reporters and market commentators, including Anne Williamson, Greg Palast, Kelly O’Meara, William Murphy and Chris Sanders.

This tapeworm operates globally. It has been winning at economic warfare because those opposed to it cannot see it clearly and are not yet networked globally to move people, places and capital out of its reach. My pastor, Bishop Alfred Owens, says, “If we can face it, God can fix it.” Indeed, divine authority is hamstrung-- waiting for the necessary global networks to align around a common map of the real deal about global consolidation of economic and political power --- and the resulting liquidation of wealth.

This tapeworm is managed tightly by the cartels that syndicate around central banking and warfare and it has four phases:

Phase One--Break It: Private syndicates make money destroying a place through organized crime, covert operations, warfare or a variety of both;
Phase Two- Buy It: The profit generated from breaking it is used to buy or seize “legal control” at a discount;
Phase Three- Fix It: Government funding, credit and subsidies are then used to “fix it” while harvesting remaining assets, including with narcotics trafficking, sex slavery and any other form of liquidating the human, intellectual, environmental and physical capital in a place:
Phase Four—Declare Victory: Victory is then declared and a flow of foundation and academic grants funded by the “break it-fix it” profits generate awards, photo opportunities and official archives and documentation for the perpetrators to be admired for their bringing of advanced civilization to the natives.

What emerges from an investment banker’s analysis of billions of transactions involved in situation after situation, in place after place, in year after year, is surprisingly simple.

We are watching a global first world economy that has a negative return on investment.

For example, in 1997 I lead an analysis of US federal expenditures and credit activities in the Philadelphia area for a group of US pension fund leaders. After analysis of the detailed data resulting from $10 billion of government reengineering and $400 billion of federal credit portfolio strategy managed by my company, the evidence was overwhelming ---the federal investment in Philadelphia had a negative return on investment. In short, government budgets were rigging profits and income for companies and people in the area. After each year of government investment, Philadelphia spent more time doing things that were fundamentally not productive and so had been paid to grow “stupider.”

The deterioration in environment, culture, infrastructure and quality of life in Philadelphia that was obvious from walking around the city matched the numbers rather than the spin in the corporate news that the economy was doing well. Equity yields were falling steadily and only cooked government and corporate books could make it look otherwise. The primary thing on the rise was the smugness of the leaders of Philadelphia institutions as their success at covert management and personal “personnel benefits” grew ever stronger.

The Giant Sucking Sound as the Tapeworm Consumes Global Capital

Another way of saying this is that the banking and corporate model as currently constituted does not work. Banks and corporations are entirely dependent on rigged government budgets, government contracts, federal credit arbitrage and corrupt regulation in way that generates a negative return on investment for taxpayers. In addition, as corporations and banks become dependent on such government intervention they become progressively less able to function in a free market. Their culture becomes progressively soviet.

The combination of negative returns to taxpayers and increasingly non-market worthy private organizations is steadily lowering productivity. Add to this the increasingly power of organized crime as a % of GNP and a determinant of who sits in power on Wall Street and Washington, and fundamental productivity does not have a chance.

This state of affairs can go on as long as it can be financed. Hence, as long as America can continue to export dollars, export Treasury bills and mortgage backed and other federally supported credit, and lead in global organized crime and warfare, a negative return economy can continue.

Another way to say this is that rather than let markets adjust in a manner that would hold banks and corporations accountable, the central banks and military and enforcement machinery will guarantee markets by offsetting ever less productivity with ever greater amounts of debt and the liquidation of planetary assets – people, places, and all living things.

Which leads us to Iraq.

The Tapeworm Ransacking of Iraq

The economic desperation that lead up to the invasion of Iraq has been eloquently described by Chris Sanders of Sanders Research Associates and fits the patterns that SRA colleague, John Laughland and his colleagues at the British Helskinki Human Rights Group, have documented in Eastern Europe. Assuming the patterns that we have seen throughout the world apply, that tapeworm’s economic desperation will feed on Iraq as follows:

The first meal to be harvested on Iraq is the profits of invasion -- from government contracts and arms trafficking to media coverage.
The second meal to be harvested on Iraq is the resulting control of assets, including gold, oil, bank accounts and antiquities. Iraq will be stripped, shipped, or otherwise switched to new ownership. Occupiers will use Iraqi assets to leverage more debt that generates more contracts and business for the inside companies. The antiquities in Iraq and this area of the world have a special meaning and attraction for the American and British leadership networks so don't underestimate the value of these. The gold bugs at LeMetropole Café reported that the Americans have captured $1 billion of gold which was quite relevant as the NY Fed Banks particularly JP Morgan, Goldman, Citibank, are running significant short positions to suppress the gold price. Such a replenishment of their stocks (or the US Treasury who they may be trading on the account of -- they usually simply move the shorts over to the taxpayers on all these types of situations) will be quite refreshing.
The third meal on Iraq to be harvested will be occupation management. If Eastern Europe is representative, America will partner with local and global organized crime and other intelligence agencies to significantly increase organized crime profits from the place. Attractive children will be culled from the population for shipment to Europe and other areas for sex slavery and pedophilia. Narcotics trafficking will increase as it has in Afghanistan. The award to CSC DynCorp of a $500 million sole source contract to run police, courts and judiciary in Iraq is an important signal. My question after years of research is whether CSC DynCorp’s core competencies relates to enforcement infrastructure designed for places with growing financial fraud, narcotics trafficking, sex slavery and control of leadership through "control files.” These are the talents that America needs to strip mine the assets to feed its economic desperation.
The fourth meal to be harvested on Iraq will be fixing it and declaring victory. This will involve significant government contracts to bring Western Civilization as defined by building those things that ensure the assets that the private corporations and investors have now acquired have the largest increase in value at no expense to themselves. A careful analysis will show expenditure rations in the soviet style—that is we will spend much more than necessary to get anything done. The banks will acquire an entirely new market. Critical to the fixing it phase is the financing of the occupation with the requirement that Iraq use the US dollar. We will print dollars and the Iraqi’s will use them. This is free financing for us. Next will come the payback for the not for profit groups. Because Christianity is an essential political support base for legitimizing the de-population of the Moslem territories, a flow of resources to the right church groups to support an expansion of their missionary ministries is likely. Progressive groups will bid for contracts to bring the rule of law and economic development and things like “the rights of women.” There will be a flow of money from foundations and universities to study how to help Iraq and to justify what we are doing.

As the corporations and banks are digesting Iraq, the American tapeworm will be setting its sights for the next meal. The money will be flowing to the right think tanks, academia and media apparatus for the preparation of the next injection into the body politic.

The lethal combination of a debt based financial system, falling productivity and the absence of meaningful feedback systems means that the magic of compound interest will dictate that the American tapeworm’s hunger for more capital is accelerating.

Where is the Tapeworm’s Brain?

The great mystery in all of this is who is really in charge. On one hand, we are watching an official action of the American governmental apparatus. On the other hand, that governmental apparatus is now run by the private companies and banks that operate the apparatus accounts and systems and finance its ever-growing debts. The investors behind these entities are global, not American. This is not a picture of a sovereign government or leaders loyal to the American people. A review of global insurance risk positions, debt and capital markets would show more about who is managing what than American politics. Indeed, Greg Palast of the BBC has proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Bush lost the election – something of no practical consequence thanks to the Supreme Court and the corporate media.

The tapeworm is in control and eating into the people of America as it is eating into the people of Iraq. Federal accounts are missing $3.3 trillion, pension funds have been stripped by pump and dump stock fraud and neighborhoods are overrun with narcotics trafficking. There are increasingly numbers of American citizens who have more in common with the people of Iraq than with the leadership of Wall Street and Washington.

With the takeover of American digital data by defense contractors and banks managing governmental functions, economic warfare takes on a whole new meaning. What is supposed to be private is not as those in the know have total access. What is supposed to be transparent is private, except for those in the know who are free to use it to advantage. With total defense contractor information awareness, people can be adjusted to ensure that markets do not have to adjust.

The American tapeworm is a symptom that the central banking-warfare model that has created the supremacy of the English-speaking people since the time of Queen Elizabeth I is dying. It is dying not because it is wrong but because it is weak. It is dying because --- like a tapeworm – it has begun to create a rapidly weaker system. Hence it is incumbent upon the English-speaking people to reinvent themselves by engaging globally to invent a new model.

Yet, the opportunity to move to a new model requires the ability to see where we are and to outline a vision to those in the system that there is hope. Doing so becomes progressively more important as who is in charge is less important than how many of us are dependent for our bread and butter on a negative return on investment economy as it tapeworms its way towards planetary extinction --- and all of us with it.

In short, the primary problem is not that the folks in charge are centralizing wealth in a destructive way or that some have too much money. That’s a problem – but a secondary one. The problem is that from the point of view of the dolphins, the plants and the trees, the planet is worse off for the presence of humans.

All solutions are found when we realize that this is something you and I can correct without wasting more time trying to find someone in charge of the tapeworm to persuade them to change its ways. It can’t change --- its too busy finding food to feed all of us.

published by:

What is Peak Oil?

2009-09-28T18:28:00.000-07:00

Peak Oil Primer

Source: Energy Bulletin

On this page:

1. Peak oil primer

What is peak oil?

Peak oil is the simplest label for the problem of energy resource depletion, or more specifically, the peak in global oil production. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource, one that has powered phenomenal economic and population growth over the last century and a half. The rate of oil 'production', meaning extraction and refining (currently about 84 million barrels/day), has grown almost every year of the last century. Once we have used up about half of the original reserves, oil production becomes ever more likely stop growing and begin a terminal decline, hence 'peak'. The peak in oil production does not signify 'running out of oil', but it does mean the end of cheap oil, as we switch from a buyers' to a sellers' market. For economies leveraged on ever increasing quantities of cheap oil, the consequences may be dire. Without significant successful cultural reform, severe economic and social consequences seem inevitable.

Why does oil peak? Why doesn't it suddenly run out?

Oil companies have, naturally enough, extracted the easier-to-reach, cheap oil first. The oil pumped first was on land, near the surface, under pressure, light and 'sweet' (meaning low sulfur content) and therefore easy to refine. The remaining oil is more likely to be off-shore, far from markets, in smaller fields and of lesser quality. It therefore takes ever more money and energy to extract, refine and transport. Under these conditions, the rate of production inevitably drops. Furthermore, all oil fields eventually reach a point where they become economically, and energetically, no longer viable. If it takes the energy of a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil, then further extraction is pointless, no matter what the price of oil.

M. King Hubbert – the first to predict an oil peak

The Hubbert Curve is used to predict the rate of production from an oil producing region containing many individual wells. Source: aspoitalia.net

In the 1950s the well known U.S. geologist M. King Hubbert was working for Shell Oil. He noted that oil discoveries graphed over time tended to follow a bell shape curve. He supposed that the rate of oil production would follow a similar curve, now known as the Hubbert Curve (see figure). In 1956 Hubbert predicted that production from the US lower 48 states would peak between 1965 and 1970. Despite efforts from his employer to pressure him into not making his projections public, the notoriously stubborn Hubbert did so anyway. In any case, most people inside and outside the industry quickly dismissed the predictions. As it happens, the US lower 48 oil production did peak in 1970/1. In that year, by definition, US oil producers had never produced as much oil, and Hubbert's predictions were a fading memory. The peak was only acknowledged with the benefit of several years of hindsight.

No oil producing region fits the bell shaped curve exactly because production is dependent on various geological, economic and political factors, but the Hubbert Curve remains a powerful predictive tool.

In retrospect, the U.S. oil peak might be seen as the most significant geopolitical event of the mid to late 20th Century, creating the conditions for the energy crises of the 1970s, leading to far greater U.S. strategic emphasis on controlling foreign sources of oil, and spelling the beginning of the end of the status of the U.S. as the world's major creditor nation. The U.S. of course, was able to import oil from elsewhere. Mounting debt has allowed life to continue in the U.S. with only minimal interruption so far. When global oil production peaks, the implications will be felt far more widely, and with much more force.

What does peak oil mean for our societies?

Our industrial societies and our financial systems were built on the assumption of continual growth – growth based on ever more readily available cheap fossil fuels. Oil in particular is the most convenient and multi-purposed of these fossil fuels. Oil currently accounts for about 43% of the world's total fuel consumption [PDF], and 95% of global energy used for transportation [PDF]. Oil and gas are feedstocks for plastics, paints, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, electronic components, tyres and much more. Oil is so important that the peak will have vast implications across the realms of war and geopolitics, medicine, culture, transport and trade, economic stability and food production. Significantly, for every one joule of food consumed in the United States, around 10 joules of fossil fuel energy have been used to produce it.

The 'Hirsch Report'

A U.S. Dept. of Energy commissioned study “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management” [PDF] was released in early 2005. Prepared by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), it is known commonly as the Hirsch Report after its primary author Robert L. Hirsch. For many months the report, although available on the website of a Californian High School, remained unacknowledged by the DOE. The executive summary of the report warns that:

as peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking. [Emphasis added.]

A later paper by Hirsch recommends the world urgently begin spending $1 trillion per year in crash programs for at least a decade, preferably two, before peaking. Obviously, nothing like the kind of efforts envisaged have yet begun. Hirsch was not asked to speculate on on when the peak was likely to occur.

So when will oil peak globally?

Later in life M. King Hubbert predicted a global oil peak between 1995 and 2000. He may have been close to the mark, except that the oil shocks of the 1970s slowed the growth of our use of oil.

As represented in the following figure, global oil discovery peaked in the late 1960s. Since the mid-1980s, oil companies have been finding less oil than we have been consuming.

Source: www.aspo-ireland.org

Of the 65 largest oil producing countries in the world, up to 54 have passed their peak of production and are now in decline, including the USA in 1970, Indonesia in 1997, Australia in 2000, the UK in 1999, Norway in 2001, and Mexico in 2004. Hubbert's methods, as well as other methodologies, have been used to make various projections about the global oil peak, with results ranging from 'already peaked', to the very optimistic 2035. Many of the official sources of data used to model oil peak such as OPEC figures, oil company reports, and the USGS discovery projections, upon which the international energy agencies base their own reports, can be shown to be frighteningly unreliable. Several notable scientists have attempted independent studies, most famously, Colin Campbell with the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO).

Source: www.aspo-ireland.org

Already peaked? ASPO's latest model suggests that regular conventional oil reached an all time peak in 2005. If heavy oil, deep-water, polar and natural gas liquids are considered (the 'all-liquids' category), the model suggests that this peak too is behind us, in 2008. Combined oil and gas is expected to have peaked globally simultaneously in 2008.

Other notable researchers such as Princeton University Professor Emeritus Kenneth Deffeyes, senior advisor to the Iranian National Oil Company A. M. Samsam Bakhtiari, UK Petroleum Review editor Chris Skrebowski, energy banker and former advisor to US President G.W. Bush Matthew Simmons and the researchers at The Oil Drum, have all projected similar peaks within the 2005-2011 range using much varied methodology. A 2007 survey suggests that their perspective has become the consensus among informed observers and industry insiders [PDF].

Other sources supporting the view that global crude oil has already peaked globally include a study by the German Government sponsored Energy Watch Group, oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens, and the former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, Sadad al-Huseini, and the Wikipedia hosted Oil Megaprojects database. As of April 2009, the peak of all-liquids production was July 2008.

Decline rates

Whether or not we've passed the peak, a more significant question may be: What will be the future rate of decline of oil production? Some form of co-ordinated adaptation might be possible if the annual drop in available oil was no more severe than 1-2% a year. Whereas 10% or more would soon implode the global economy. Most models project decline rates of 2-4%.

Exports

Nations dependent on imports are likely to find that their access to oil will fall at a far sharper rate than the global decline rate. During shortages, higher oil prices stimulate the economy of exporting nations which increases their internal consumption. Combined with a national peak in oil production, exports from any particular nation can drop to zero disturbingly quickly.

Natural gas peak

The effects of natural gas peak are relatively localized. This is due to the enormous economic and energetic expense of liquefying and transporting natural gas as a compressed liquid. Both European and North American natural gas production have likely already peaked, so these regions are facing the extra severity of a dual energy crisis.

Financial collapse and oil peak

After several years of rapid growth, the global crude price began falling in lockstep with financial markets in 2008, a fact which may have both contributed to – and masked – a concurrent global oil production peak. The oil industry has been running on a treadmill since 2005 with production staying essentially flat. Capital for oil infrastructure investments, which might have seen new production continue to offset declines for a few more years yet, has withered.

Conversely, the financial collapse itself was triggered in part by the approach of peak oil: higher commuting costs due to soaring oil prices set off the 'exurb' house price collapse in the US and put stress on mortgage repayments, leading to the subsequent collapse of the mortgage backed securities bubble and further financial unraveling. But this was merely a trigger event. In the long run, peak oil poses far more fundamental challenges to our dominant economic systems which are predicated on perpetual growth.

But it's just oil and gas – there are other fossil fuels, other energy sources, right?

To evaluate other energy sources it helps to understand the concepts of Net Energy, or the Energy Returned On Energy Invested ratio (EROEI). One of the reasons our economies have grown so abundant so quickly over the last few generations is precisely because oil has had an unprecedentedly high EROEI ratio. In the early days of oil, for every barrel of oil used for exploration and drilling, up to 100 barrels of oil were found. More recently, as oil recovery becomes more difficult, the ratio has become significantly lower. Certain alternative energy 'sources' may actually have EROEI ratios of less than one, such as many methods of industrially producing biodiesel and ethanol, or extracting oil from shale. That is, when all factors are considered, you probably need to invest more energy into the process than you get back.

Hydrogen, touted by many as a seamless solution, is actually an energy carrier, but not an energy source. Hydrogen must be produced using an energy source such as natural gas or nuclear power. Because of energy losses in transformation, the hydrogen will always contain less energy than was invested in it.

Some alternatives such as wind and hydro-power may have much better EROEI, however their potential expansion may be limited by various physical factors. Even in combination it may not be possible to gather from renewable sources of energy anything like the rate and quality of energy that industrial society is accustomed to. Peak oil author Richard Heinberg uses the metaphor that whereas fossil fuels are akin to a massive inheritance, one spent rather drunkenly, renewables are much more like a hard won energy wage.

For certain tasks, such as air travel, no other energy source can readily be substituted for oil. As noted by the Hirsch reports, alternative energy infrastructures require long periods of investment, on the scale of decades, to be widely implemented. We may be already leaving the period of cheap energy before we have begun seriously embarking on this task.

It's worth noting briefly that any EROEI study is complex and different methods of accounting can come up with vastly different results, so any net energy study might be viewed with some suspicion. We may not know with total certainty the usefulness of any renewable energy technologies until the hidden fossil fuel energy subsidies are finally removed.

2. Further information

Peak oil and climate change: If peak oil merely threatens industrial civilisation, climate change promises to destabilize the planetary biosphere. The two issues are integrally related, and solutions to peak oil can also address climate change. Consider how we might bridge peak oil and climate change activism. David Holmgren has begun integrating peak oil and climate change into a global scenario planning framework.

Peak coal: Recent studies suggest that we may reach 'peak coal' much sooner than previously thought. Chris Vernon rounds up five recent reports to that effect over at The Oil Drum: Europe.

Peak everything: Peak Everything is the name of a book by peak oil author Richard Heinberg. Globally we have already passed peaks or are soon to be facing them in copper, phosphorous, fish catches, grain production, per capita fresh water and uranium to name but a few. This is no coincidence, we have been consuming the world's resources at an unprecedented rate. The human population, which has risen in lockstep with fossil fuel production, will likely peak more or less in sync with these fuels.

Oil and food production: Essays The Oil We Eat by Richard Manning, and Eating Fossil Fuels by Dale Allen Pfeiffer both look at modern agricultures' dependence on fossil fuels. Both are highly recommended.

Audio and video:
Global Public Media – essential interviews on peak oil and environmental issues (Now integrated into Energy Bulletin.)
Peak Oil? – a 44 minute TV special from Four Corners (Australia), viewable online (July 2006)
The End of Suburbia and A Crude Awakening – two excellent peak oil documentaries purchasable on DVD.

Research and reference articles:
ASPO – original research from The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
ASPO Ireland – the Irish branch of ASPO through which Colin Campbell now publishes the ASPO monthly newsletter (Note: In April 2009 Colin published his 100th and final newsletter, his task of bringing the concept of peak oil into public light achieved.)
ASPO-USA publishes about 3 good articles every week (many of which are republished here)
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) in the UK has a good website that is frequently updated
The Oil Drum – the breaking edge of community peak oil research
DieOff.com – an alarming but scholarly archive of research. The original peak oil website.

News and commentary:
The Oil Drum the daily Drum Beat is a collation of news stories

Peak Energy Australian Big Gav's aggregation and commentary on energy related news

Gristmill – environmental news and articles, with an increasing emphasis on energy, sustainability and climate

Resource Insights – Kurt Cobb publishes intelligent peak oil informed commentary on a broad range of issues.

Casaubon's Book – several essays and how-to articles a week from author, mother and farmer Sharon Astyk

James Kunstler's blog – peak oil commentary with a special focus on cultural decline. See both www.kunstler.com and jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com

Crisis Energética – peak oil news in Spanish

Mailing lists:
RunningOnEmpty3 – a group for peak oil beginners
EnergyResources – the original peak oil focused email list
RunningOnEmpty2 – a more solutions, self-sufficiency focused list
groups.yahoo.com/group/EnergyRoundTable – a group emphasizing discussion and politics

There are numerous local mailing lists too, many on yahoo can be found at this link:
groups.yahoo.com/search?query=peak%20oil&ss=1

More links, including books to read: An excellent list of links is maintained here:
www.dynamiclist.com/?worldview/peakoil

3. What can be done?

Many people are working on preparations for peak oil at various different levels, but there is probably no cluster of solutions which do not involve some major changes in lifestyles, especially for the global affluent. Peak oil presents the potential for quite catastrophic upheavals, but ultimately also some more hopeful possibilities: a chance to address many underlying societal problems, and the opportunity return to simpler, healthier and more community oriented lifestyles.

The Community Solution to Peak Oil. Many excellent resources are available through the website of this Ohio based organization "dedicated to the development, growth and enhancement of small local communities... that are sustainable, diverse and culturally sophisticated." The Community Solution have hosted several recent grassroots peak oil conferences, and have developed an important film, The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil, documenting how this country has relatively successfully adapted to a political oil peak after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
www.communitysolution.org

Permaculture: Permaculture is a 'design science' which can allow us to live in relative abundance with minimal resource use. Permaculture principles and practice can be applied to functionally redesigning social systems, built environments, ecological and agricultural practices the post-peak era. David Holmgren's 2001 book, Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability, deals explicitly with the global oil peak and proposes permaculture as the best set of strategies for dealing with what he terms 'energy descent'.
www.permacultureactivist.net
www.permacultureinternational.org
www.holmgren.com.au

Transition Towns: Several communities around the world have begun their own preparations for peak oil, and are documenting the process. The Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan out of rural Ireland is the world's first local action plan for peak oil, dealing with broad issues relating to peak, including health, education, tourism and youth issues. The plan and its initiator Rob Hopkins have inspired the Transition Towns movement of peak oil preparing towns, focused in Europe. In the US, local organizers within the town of Willits, Califonia have begun work on the Willits Economic LocaLization Project (WELL). Many other communities around the world are embarking along similar paths.
www.transitionculture.org - Rob Hopkins' blog
www.transitiontowns.org
www.willitseconomiclocalization.org

Oil Awareness Meet Ups is a grass roots awareness raising network helping people meet up and discuss peak oil. Join or start a meet-up in your neighborhood.
oilawareness.meetup.com

Local Currencies and Steady State Economics:
Local Currencies: Richard Douthwaite, a 'recovering economist', has proposed a number of alternative monetary systems to deal with energy decline and the associated monetary crises which might arise post-peak. Local currencies like LETS are in operation around the planet already (although LETS itself may be somewhat problematic). Experiment now with local currencies to help survive economic crises.
The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability (FEASTA) has some of Richard Douthwaite's publications available for free online, including entire books as well as masses of other excellent research and articles by other writers, relating not just to economics and local currencies, but to various aspects of sustainability.
See also: www.communitycurrency.org/resources.html

Intentional Communities: Intentional Community (IC) is an inclusive term for ecovillages, cohousing, residential land trusts, communes, student co-ops, urban housing cooperatives and other related projects and dreams... ICs represent one of the sanest ways of dealing with energy peak.
www.ic.org
gen.ecovillage.org
www.cohousing.org

The Oil Depletion Protocol: is a global framework for distributing the world's remaining oil reserves more equitably than free market forces would allow, to avoid resource wars, profiteering and economic collapse. Help promote it:
How to avoid oil wars, terrorism, and economic collapse by Richard Heinberg
Oil Depletion Protocol website

Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) are a system for rationing fuel which includes everyone – individuals, industry and the Government – and which enables users to sell any rations they do not use.
www.teqs.net

Lobbying: Lobby governments to spend now on renewable energy and improving agricultural practices. Many facts are summarized in the following 'convince sheet' by Bruce Thomson: greatchange.org/ov-thomson,convince_sheet.html

Your feedback is welcome.

Last updated 16 June 2009 by Bart Anderson

The Energy Bulletin website contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of issues of environmental and humanitarian significance. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml . If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.